Political economist Middle East expert Gulf specialist SWF, China focus

Experience

Policy Analysis Fellow | Middle East Advisor | Professor | Founder

I founded and run Polisphere Advisory, an EMEA-focused investment and geoeconomic consulting firm that helps investors, multinational firms, and governments seize new opportunities and mitigate risks in complex business and regulatory environments. We are building better business intelligence, beginning with the Middle East. I am also a Middle East Advisor with Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk team, and a Non-resident Fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI). After leading AGSI’s political economy research from Washington, D.C. for several years, I will continue to support the institute’s visibility and impact in Europe and the Middle East as a Non-Resident Fellow from my base in Paris.

I am also the Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center (SQCC) Research Fellow for 2025-26, a Columnist with Arabian Gulf Business Insight, a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Member of the Board of Advisors of Henley & Partners, a global wealth migration advisory firm. The Middle East Policy Council listed me in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. I have served as a consultant with Eurasia Group, Oxford Economics, NATO, the National Intelligence Council, European government entities, international business associations, global law firms, and in many other senior consulting and advisory capacities. I was previously Head of PR and Marketing at Oxford Strategic Consulting and held a number of journalism roles in the Middle East and North Africa.

I am a leading expert on the Gulf states and their role in the global economy. I am the author of "A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia" (Springer 2025) and "A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States" (Palgrave Macmillan 2021). My current research and advisory work spans geoeconomics, geopolitics, sovereign wealth funds, special economic zones, trade, investment, regulatory environments, technology trends, the politics and economics of Gulf Arab states, and China-MENA relations. I have held roles across the private sector, policy analysis world, and academia in the U.S., Europe, and Middle East. I hold a DPhil and MPhil degrees from the University of Oxford and a BA in Arabic and Government from Georgetown University. I have spent many years studying Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect and possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect.

Expert Analysis

His published work has appeared in Foreign Policy, The Banker, Semafor, Arabian Gulf Business Insight, ISPI, World Politics Review, Axios, MEED, Egypt Oil & Gas, Al Monitor, and the Cairo Review of Global Affairs. In addition to his AGSI publications, he contributes articles covering the Middle East and international affairs for think tanks and research organizations across the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.

Informed Commentary

Dr. Mogielnicki regularly provides commentary for international media outlets, including: The Economist, Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review, Financial Times, Nature, Reuters, VOX, Washington Post, VOA, Los Angeles Times, Deutsche Welle, and S&P Global. He has conducted television and radio interviews for BBC World News TV, Al Jazeera, Central Florida PBS, and Bulgarian National Radio.

Manuscripts

A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia

This book on sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in the Middle East and Asia brings together leading scholars and practitioners focusing on investment trends in two prominent and influential regions of the globe. The resulting political economy mapping of these investment vehicles breaks new ground in elucidating prominent geographic contours of the global SWF sector. The interregional framing likewise reveals the strategic economic significance of SWF-facilitated linkages between the Middle East and Asia. The work probes three cross-cutting themes. The initial chapters explore the dynamics of competition and collaboration amongst Middle Eastern and Asian SWFs. This book then turns to the energy, environmental, and sustainability issues shaping SWF investment behavior. Finally, country-specific chapters examine how and why SWF investments materialize within key markets. These interregional connections enabled by sovereign wealth represent an expanding economic frontier with long-term implications for the Middle East, Asia, and the global economy.

Reviews:

"A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia, edited by Robert Mogielnicki, is an important and valuable addition to the literature on SWFs ... . The volume consists of eight chapters, six of which are authored by scholars with extensive experience studying SWFs or analyzing their investment transactions. ... While major economic institutions are ultimately political, the book persuasively demonstrates that scholarly research in this domain remains a worthwhile and necessary investment."

--Ghiyath F. Nakshbendi, Middle East Journal, Vol. 79 (1), 2026

“Full of new information and uncommon insights, this volume is richly rewarding. There has been a good deal of ink spilled about Asian ties with the Middle East, but there is no better source than this book to understand the important role that huge sovereign wealth funds play in those ties.”

--Dr. Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy and Director, Middle East Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

“The expansion of relations between Asia and the Gulf is one of the great geopolitical stories of our time, and sovereign wealth funds drive many of the most interesting plot lines. Mogielnicki has brought together a top-notch group of contributors to help us understand the financial influence of these funds and to explain their role in linking two dynamic regions.” --Dr. Jonathan Fulton, Associate Professor, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, UAE

“Sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia are both reflecting and shaping political economy realities in two vast and vibrant regions of the world. In this timely edited volume, experts specialized in the Gulf, the Middle East's most vibrant economic sub-region, and in various Asian countries highlight similarities and differences between sovereign wealth funds and discuss their investment strategies and global competitiveness. The outcome is a revealing analytical map of political economy developments in the two regions that is highly relevant for policy practitioners.”

--Dr. Amr Hamzawy is the director of the Middle East Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC

“The book provides a clear-headed look at the scene of SWFs in the Middle East and their relationship with peers in Asia. Mogielnicki puts his expertise and that of his colleagues toward an expert examination of the relationship–including modality–between Gulf SWFs and their Asian counterparts, going beyond the geopolitical discourse.”

--Mohammed Baharoon, Director General of b'huth, the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre

“Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) have been significant economic institutions in the Gulf countries for many years. Their size, investment strategies, and investment universe have evolved over time. With the expansion of Gulf-Asia relations, SWFs have been used as important institutions to advance those ties. This book is a unique series of essays, each of which explore the role of SWFs in the broader context of the Gulf-Asia relationships. It is a timely contribution to the existing knowledge of academics and practitioners.”

--Dr. Sara Bazoobandi, Marie Curie Fellow, German Institute for Global and Area Studies

“This edited volume provides fresh insights into the political economy of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), focusing on the growing economic interdependence between the Middle East and Asia. By examining the strategic intentions and market dynamics driving SWF activity in these regions, it fills a critical gap in the literature on their expanding influence in the global economy.”

--Dr. John Calabrese, Assistant Professor at American University and non-resident Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute

Credentials

Affiliations & Awards

Dr. Mogielnicki is the recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center Research Fellowship for 2025-26 and a Term Member at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Middle East Policy Council listed him in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. He served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011 and is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11).

Education

Dr. Mogielnicki holds a DPhil degree from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College and a MPhil degree in Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Oxford’s St Antony’s College. He received his BA from Georgetown University with a double major in Arabic and Government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa.

Featured Research Report

The Politics of Leverage: Bond Issuances, Debt Dynamics, and State Finances in the Gulf

The underlying economic factors driving debt issuances, issues related to how raised funds are redeployed within local economies, and the implications of looming debt maturities help to paint a comprehensive picture of the state of Gulf Arab economies.

Sovereign and corporate bond issuances proved to be crucial economic policy tools and financial instruments in Gulf Arab states during the extraordinary economic challenges of 2020. While there were several major bond deals announced in early 2021, the pace of issuances and eagerness to tap international bond markets is poised to slow across the Gulf for the second half of 2021 and into 2022. Bond issuances and their future implications will remain a central feature of the political economy of Gulf Arab states, but the urgency for most Gulf governments to raise funding from international capital markets has diminished following higher oil prices and rosier economic growth forecasts. Another sustained slide in oil prices, however, would renew pressure on government finances and likely increase the need for debt issuances.

Read the full report here.