Political economist Middle East expert Gulf specialist SWF, China focus

Experience

Policy Analysis Fellow | Middle East Advisor | Professor | Founder

I founded and lead Polisphere Advisory, an EMEA-focused investment and geoeconomic consulting firm that helps investors, multinational firms, and governments seize new opportunities and mitigate risks in complex business and regulatory environments. I am also a Middle East Advisor with Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk team, and a Non-Resident Fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI). After leading AGSI’s political economy research from Washington, D.C. for several years, I will continue to support the institute’s visibility and impact in Europe and the Middle East as a Non-Resident Fellow from my base in Paris.

I am also the Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center (SQCC) Research Fellow for 2025-26, a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Member of the Board of Advisors of Henley & Partners, a global wealth migration advisory firm. The Middle East Policy Council listed me in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. I have served as a consultant with Eurasia Group, Oxford Economics, NATO, the National Intelligence Council, European government entities, international business associations, global law firms, and in many other senior consulting and advisory capacities. I was previously Head of PR and Marketing at Oxford Strategic Consulting and held a number of journalism roles in the Middle East and North Africa.

I am a leading expert on the Gulf states and their role in the global economy. My most recent book explores sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia, and I am also the author of "A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States" (Palgrave Macmillan 2021). My current research and advisory work spans geoeconomics, geopolitics, sovereign wealth funds, special economic zones, trade, investment, regulatory environments, technology trends, the politics and economics of Gulf Arab states, and China-MENA relations. I have held roles across the private sector, policy analysis world, and academia in the U.S., Europe, and Middle East. I hold a DPhil and MPhil degrees from the University of Oxford and a BA in Arabic and Government from Georgetown University. I have spent many years studying Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect and possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect.

Expert Analysis

His published work has appeared in Foreign Policy, The Banker, World Politics Review, Axios, MEED, Egypt Oil & Gas, Al Monitor, and the Cairo Review of Global Affairs. In addition to his AGSIW publications, he contributes articles covering the Middle East and international affairs for think tanks and research organizations across the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.

Informed Commentary

Dr. Mogielnicki regularly provides commentary for international media outlets, including: The Economist, Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review, Financial Times, Nature, Reuters, VOX, Washington Post, VOA, Los Angeles Times, Deutsche Welle, and S&P Global. He has conducted television and radio interviews for BBC World News TV, Al Jazeera, Central Florida PBS, and Bulgarian National Radio.

Manuscript

The first book-length empirical study of free zones in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States (Palgrave 2021)

“An insightful and original contribution…This book is essential reading for anyone seeking a more nuanced understanding of the political economy of the Arab Gulf states.”

-- Dr Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director & Senior Research Fellow, Middle East North Africa Programme, Chatham House

“Mogielnicki provides a wide-ranging, theoretically nuanced analysis of the phenomenon, reflecting a deep understanding of both the economic and political context of free zones.”

-- Dr Steffen Hertog: Associate Professor in Comparative Politics, The London School of Economics and Political Science

“We get a detailed view of the politics and social engineering that undergird the creation and management of the free zones. This monograph is a must for all who study the Arab Gulf."

-- Jean-François Seznec: Scholar, Middle East Institute

“A highly original and valuable contribution…This analysis will only become more important in the future as Gulf countries move to reform and diversify their economies. In refining our theoretical understanding of rentier state theory, the book’s relevance goes far beyond the Gulf region.”

-- Prof. Luigi Narbone: Director, Middle East Directions Programme, European University Institute

Credentials

Affiliations & Awards

Dr. Mogielnicki is a Term Member at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Middle East Policy Council listed him in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts. He served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011 and is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11).

Education

Dr. Mogielnicki holds a DPhil degree from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College and a MPhil degree in Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Oxford’s St Antony’s College. He received his BA from Georgetown University with a double major in Arabic and Government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa.

Featured Research Report

The Politics of Leverage: Bond Issuances, Debt Dynamics, and State Finances in the Gulf

The underlying economic factors driving debt issuances, issues related to how raised funds are redeployed within local economies, and the implications of looming debt maturities help to paint a comprehensive picture of the state of Gulf Arab economies.

Sovereign and corporate bond issuances proved to be crucial economic policy tools and financial instruments in Gulf Arab states during the extraordinary economic challenges of 2020. While there were several major bond deals announced in early 2021, the pace of issuances and eagerness to tap international bond markets is poised to slow across the Gulf for the second half of 2021 and into 2022. Bond issuances and their future implications will remain a central feature of the political economy of Gulf Arab states, but the urgency for most Gulf governments to raise funding from international capital markets has diminished following higher oil prices and rosier economic growth forecasts. Another sustained slide in oil prices, however, would renew pressure on government finances and likely increase the need for debt issuances.

Read the full report here.